20+ Social Media Predictions for 2009
It is that time of year again, time for prognosticating about the future. Roger Harris at Twitterthoughts has compiled his list of trends to look for, here I share the first five:
Here are my predictions for 10 social media trends during 2009. Of course, some of these will be wrong. I’ll miss others. But from a general perspective, it’s clear that social media is going to be changing fast. It’ll remain a moving target for marketers, yet an exciting technology for developers and users.So here are my picks. What are yours?
1. Twitter will be more fully integrated with mainstream social networks (MySpace, Facebook, etc.)
2. More Fortune 500 businesses will set up Twitter accounts and C-level blogs
3. More social networking consolidation tools for one-stop profile and posting management will emerge
4. Marketers will explore novel approaches to ad strategies on social networks
5. Advertisers will implement improved tools and metrics to gauge the ROI of social media ad spend
Click the link above to see the whole list.
Peter Kim has assembled a resource of Social Media predictions as well. It includes:
Fourteen great minds on social media have shared thoughts on what 2009 may have in store for us. Here’s some of what they’re thinking:
- “Although it is now cheaper to launch an initiative leveraging Web 2.0 technology - it requires qualified and passionate people to make them successful.” - David Armano
- “You may not always start the year as a leader, but you can certainly finish it that way.” - Rohit Bhargava
- “Intimacy touches emotion; emotion powers conversation.” - Pete Blackshaw
- “Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn’t come the way people thought it would.” - Chris Brogan
You can download a PDF of this collection at Being Peter Kim.
I agree 100% that the field of Social Media communication is going to continue its rapid pace of change. In fact, I believe that the pace of change will actually slow the adoption and standardization of Social Media tools. In addition, Chris Brogan hits the nail on the head with his (somewhat cynical, but ultimately practical) insight on the ROI.
Here are a few of my own predictions:
- As creative users work out the kinks and discover the possibilities of various applications (witness the explosion of Twitter-related tools!) new applications will arrive on the scene that answer calls for needs that have not yet been addressed.
- Competition for market share between the iPhone and the Android will drive a new wave of mobile-based applications.
- These mobile applications will drive the new look of the internet, blurring the line between online-personas and real-life persons. And make a lot more people start using the expression “Web 3.0″.
- We will see a rash of failed attempts at Social Media Marketing by large corporations that still believe in two things:
- pushing “Marketing Department-approved” content through their own pipes
- controlling Brands through keeping their communities inside a walled garden
- Authenticity and Transparency will become the watchwords of the Social Media community, and we will point to the aforementioned failures as examples of what not to do.
- The “Little Brother” effect: [Def: You are very likely to be recorded in the background of someone's camera. All the time. And these recordings get posted to the internet for all to see.] The definition of “Privacy” will continue to evolve as the price of digital storage approaches zero and connection bandwidth becomes more ubiquitous. The convergence of these two trends will create the opportunity for millions of people to create their own “TV Networks”, narrow-casting their daily activities 24/7.
What say you? What do you think that the future holds for the Social Media Space? Please share in the comments.
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Comments
Humm, where is social media going to be in 2009. WOW, now that might be a loaded question. I would agree there will be changes. However, I am not so sure those using social media services like twitter will be keen on the idea of seeing it monetized with ads. What I do see for twitter is a “pro” account where we can pay for a non-ad portal with more features too. I also see twitter adopted in its own API some of the ideas that 3rd parties have done. Groups for one.
I do see corporate users increasing. However, before that happens they are going to have to fire most of the PR firms working for them. After all, most of them don’t even blog. I am hoping we see more big businesses grasp the importance of blogging and connecting with their target audience. And they need to use it to connect with their customers. Considering the economic issues we are facing and the bad image corporate america has right now, they are going to have to adopt to social media and blogging to make and maintain a much need connection with the rest of the world.
Time will tell on all of these issues. But, if anything, 2009 is going to be an interesting year to watch.
I think that SM is going to fill voids and necessities that we didn’t even know that we had!
With the advent of Magpie and other SM advertising incorporation, I also think that we are going to see the evolution of SM to include advertising as well. Just as blogs have evolved from the early days to include advertising, so shall social media.
One could call also label your fourth point, “more corporations scrape their knees.” ;)
I think the mindset that will be “pushing ‘Marketing Department-approved’ content through their own pipes,” will undoubtedly demonstrate some epic fail, but it will also be learning to evolve. It’s tough to watch the pedantic pace of adoption. Yet, they are going to need encouragement and support from the blogging community to take those first steps and “try.”
I think a lot of companies are genuinely scared to take those first steps, often accompanied by the false perception that the blogosphere consists of hundreds of potential brand detractors looking to parade their mistakes.
What I would ‘like’ to see in 2009 is a significant collaboration between the best and brightest social media folks to build creative methods for welcoming brands into their new voices.
Not to kiss Brogan’s ass, but he’s right. Get ready for the shakeout. Look at Pownce. Specialty and “velvet rope” social media networks will keep growing. Hypermediation and centralization tools will evolve.
2009 will be the year of the rise of the Twitter marketing gurus.
“Doors are going to close all over the social web. Why? Because the money didn’t come the way people thought it would.” - Chris Brogan
Of all people, for once I think Chris Brogan is right. I personally don’t think Fortune 500’s have any use for social media - at least, it won’t be nearly as beneficial as social media is for smaller companies. Even then, sales rarely come directly - with one exception.
Michael Martine is right - Twitter is the ultimate sales tool. 100% of my clients, except for referrals, have come through my efforts on Twitter. Nowhere else have I seen such an ROI - not even on PPC.
We will see a rash of failed attempts at Social Media Marketing by large corporations that still believe in two things:
* pushing “Marketing Department-approved” content through their own pipes
* controlling Brands through keeping their communities inside a walled garden
I think you definitely got that nail on the head too. Although, it won’t be just large corporations. In the coming year, social media will become known as more of a norm than a newborn, and a rash of newbies will hit the scene with no clue how to market themselves properly though social media.
…The definition of “Privacy” will continue to evolve as the price of digital storage approaches zero and connection bandwidth becomes more ubiquitous. The convergence of these two trends will create the opportunity for millions of people to create their own “TV Networks”, narrow-casting their daily activities 24/7.
Yes, the definition of privacy will change, but free-for-all ubiquitous Internet access is on the chopping block. Our last hope of a place where true free speech can reside is being threatened by ISPs and major players online such as Google, MySpace, and Amazon. If we aren’t diligent, we may see a dictatorial online environment start to develop in the coming year.
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